New York State Education Department. 2005.
This research note identifies factors associated with school district budget vote
failures in New York State. Regression analysis using school budget vote results from
May 2004 and data from the School District Property Tax Report Card and the School
District Fiscal Profiles suggests that the percentage increase in the tax levy is a good
predictor of voting results. The greater the year-to-year percentage increase in the
proposed tax levy, the greater the predicted percentage of voters rejecting the school
budget in the initial vote in May. Whether or not a district was located in Long Island
(Nassau and Suffolk counties) was also a powerful and statistically significant predictor.
Higher levels of local tax effort to support education and greater district size (in terms of
the number of pupils) were also associated with a greater proportion of "no" votes within
a district, but the size of those effects was rather small. Together all of the predictors
accounted for approximately a third of the variance in the percentage voting "no.